Current Situation
SEASONAL CALENDAR OF TYPICAL YEAR
Source:
FEWS NET
FIGURE 1. MARCH TO MAY 2014 RAINFALL IN KAMONYI, BUGESERA COMPARED TO THE HISTORICAL MEAN
Source:
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- Season B harvests: Season B harvests were below-average across Rwanda due to erratic seasonal rainfall, poor distribution, and dry spells in April and May and below-average cumulative rainfall across the country. Dry spells beginning in mid-April intensified in May when most field crops were at grain filling stages. For example, in Bugesera, March to May cumulative rainfall was nearly 30 percent below average (Figure 1). Season B harvests typically mark the end of the April to June minor lean season and stocks from own production generally last until September when Season C harvests begin. This season's poor harvests will not replenish household food stocks as they usually do across all livelihood zones. In the Eastern Congo-Nile Highland Subsistence Farming Zone, Bugesera Cassava Zone, and the Eastern Semi-Arid Agro-Pastoral Zone, greater production deficits are expected due to crop disease and pests like maize neclotic and caterpillars. Season B harvests in these areas are expected to be more than 40 percent below-average. Reduced groundwater resources were also reported in Bugesera Cassava Zone.
- Season C Cultivation: Rainfall deficits from April to June are expected to delay Season C planting which depends on irrigation from marshland areas. Drier than normal marshland conditions are expected to limit germination of legumes and vegetables, the main crops cultivated in Season C. Field reports from Muhanga District indicate crop watering system failure as local dams are dry. Reductions in area planted for Season C are expected.
- Labor wage: Due to poor seasonal performance in Burundi, an influx of Burundian laborers seeking on and off-farm employment during the harvest period in eastern and southern parts of country has led to increased competition for labor opportunities. Demand for agricultural labor has declined because of below-average Season B harvests and reduced Season C planting. The increase of labor supply has lowered wages in Kirehe, Bugesera, Ngoma, Nyaruguru, and Gisagara districts. Poor laborers have begun to seek in-kind payment because cash wages are not sufficient to cover household food needs. The increased supply of local and migrant labor is expected to diminish in-kind payment quantities, which is likely to impact household food access. Local populations from Bugesera district have begun to migrate towards Nyagatare and Rwamagana districts in search of better labor opportunities.
- Food consumption: Household food consumption improved due to recent beans and sorghum harvests in eastern and northern parts of the country. Other crops like bananas, cassava and sweet potatoes are also available. However, expected production deficits of between 20 to 50 percent across the country have increased market dependence, especially for poor households with limited landholdings.
- Food Prices: Food prices varied in May depending on the commodity. Cassava flour prices were stable in most markets and remain consistent with the two-year average. Bean prices increased in Kayenzi, Bugarama, and Rwagitima and decreased in Kimironko. Whole maize prices increased by between 8 and 19 percent Rwagitima, Kayenzi, Bugarama and Kimironko and decreased by 18 percent in Gakenke from April to May. Staple food prices including grains, roots and tubers are expected to decline seasonably with the start of the June-to-July harvest. However, prices are likely to decrease only in the short-term due to production deficits.
- Water resources: Water availability deteriorated for livestock and human consumption across most of the country. Reports in Kigali and rural areas indicate reduced water resources following rainfall deficits from April to June, especially in Bugesera and in Nyagatare Districts.
Updated Assumptions
The current situation has changed some of the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET's most likely scenario for April to September 2014. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the April to September 2014 Food Security Outlook.
- Rainfall: Season B rainfall was forecasted to be near normal across the country and FEWS NET assumed normal Season B production. However, from April to June, rainfall deficits and poor temporal distribution were observed. Current medium-term forecast suggest enhanced drying conditions over Eastern Africa during June to September which is likely to affect the start of Season A 2015. Reduced area planted is likely for Season C due to decreased water supply in marshlands which are used to irrigate legumes and vegetables.
- Food stocks: Given reduced household food stocks from own production, increased market dependence and decreased labor demand from two consecutive below-average harvests, atypical labor migration towards Uganda is expected from July to September.
- Food prices: As a result of Season B production deficits, food prices are not expected to decline as they normally do in the post-harvest period. This will likely affect the purchasing power of poor households, especially in Eastern Semi-arid Agropastoral, Bugesera Cassava and Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming livelihood zones. Cross-border staple food inflows are not likely to stabilize prices because East African trading partners have also experienced production deficits.
Projected outlook through September 2014
During the July to August harvest and post-harvest period, most households will depend on own production and market purchase for food. However, due to below-average production in the Eastern Semi-arid Agro-pastoral, Bugesera Cassava and Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming livelihood zones, household food stocks are expected to deplete by late July, two months earlier than normal. Poor households are expected to increase hunting and gathering to cover food needs. Increased internal migration towards the Eastern Plateau Banana Zone and external migration to Uganda in search of labor opportunities is also expected As a result, FEWS NET estimates that about 750,000 people will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from August to September.
About this Update
This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET's quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.
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Posted by: Nzinink <nzinink@yahoo.com>
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