Is the turning down of the former Rwandan Premier Faustin Twagiramungu to return to his country a vindication of the Kagame's dictatorial grip on Power?
There is a saying that if two thieves who are friends sleep in the same room, neither any of them will sleep, so is the current scenario for the former Rwandan premier and the RPF regime under president Kagame. Kagame knows very well the political strength of Faustin Twagiramungu , so it seems Kagame cannot take changes at the time when his camp is planning how they can manipulate the Rwandan society so that they can change the constitution to give Kagame a third term.
Mr. Faustin Twagiramungu has just said on the BBC Gahuzamiryango that come rain or sunshine, he is determined to go back home to his homeland. "Whether I go by air or underground, I'm determined to go to my mother land" he said. Where does this leave the man of two faces (Kagame), who says that all Rwandans who are outside the country should return home yet on the other hand some are denied that in alienable right?
The answer is simple, Kagame will only love to please the international community that he wants his people to come back home so that he can solicit trophies and money, but honestly Kagame will never be happy for seeing people of political background back home. He is the only Bull in the RPF Kraal; any bull raising horns will be crashed before it challenges him. Mr Faustin Twagiramungu on the hand is not a simple nut to crack; he is well known to have given the former Rwandan President Habyarimana sleepless nights. Indeed, he was very instrumental in bringing down the Habyarimana's regime.
Will history repeat itself?
In 1990s when many African countries embraced the multiparty democracy Mr Twagiramungu revived MDR which is an old party of the former President Gregore Kayibanda who is coincidentally his father- in- law , it is this party that shook the MRND of President Habyarimana combined with RPF armed resistance that saw the eventual collapse of the MRND regime when his presidential Falcon Jet was brought down in mysterious circumstances as it was landing at the Kigali International Airport. Mr. Twagiramungu when he was addressing the Rwanda Dream Initiative in Sherbrooke Quebec Canada in March this Year, he said that "I have decided to go back home this year," He Said.
His skeptics have argued that the current Twagiramungu is no different from the old one of 2003 when he was contesting for the presidency which he lost to the incumbent president Kagame. However others have argued that what is new though this time is that Kagame is barred by the Constitution to seek another term come 2017. Will Kagame honour the constitution and leave power as he promised or as he has been promising any time he is confronted with this question? Kagame has chosen to be ambiguous to whether he will stand down.
"The idea should be put aside [to allow us to] attend to more pressing issues facing citizens at the moment. Of all challenges we have been through, I don't think this would be the hardest to overcome. I actually desist from taking part in these debates because they tend to divert people's attention from what they have been doing. Time for that will come, why don't we then hold this discussion until the right time comes?" President Kagame told journalists. However the veteran opposition leader Mr. Twagiramungu said that he was optimistic that Mr.Kagame will listen to him, "I'm optimistic that Kagame will listen to me. I may be naive, but I think I have to try," said Twagiramungu, a 68-year-old who was prime minister in Rwanda's post-genocide government.
Political analysts will give many reasons why Mr Kagame will hold on power like his mentor in the neighbouring Uganda. Whereas circumstances are not identical but they do share similarities, Kagame wherever he goes he is met with demonstrations calling him a war criminal who should be in Hague not in Rwanda. Just recently in what his organisers called the Rwandan day, he was humiliated in what some people said that some organisers have been infiltrated by the opposition so that the President is humiliated in order to show the international community that the man they cherish for being a saint , he is instead a devil. Mr. Kagame has denied his people the right to assemble or demonstrate a fundamental right guaranteed by even the Rwandan Constitution. Therefore according to some political commentators the opposition working with the insiders of president Kagame have managed to persuade him that visiting the Diaspora will increase his popularity. On the contrary the opposition is gaining more ground and exposing the weakness of the president as not only autocratic but a man who cannot allow his political opponents to operate freely in their own country.
Will Mr. Twagiramungu change the status quo of the Rwandan politics?
"What I will propose to Kagame is not to give up power to me" he said. He further said that he will strive to see that every Rwandan lives to his/her dreams, "But I will make suggestions on how Rwanda could be managed in a way that every citizen has the hope of achieving his or her objectives and of living in peace."Today Rwandans do not live in peace. There are always threats, insults, humiliations and fear." Kagame and his regime are under international legal scrutiny for not only committing gross human rights violations but also assassinating and sidelining his competitors. Furthermore, a United Nations report suggests that Rwanda is supporting the M23 rebellion in eastern DRC. Indeed, observers criticised the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda for refusing to try crimes committed by Kagame's Rwandan Patriotic Army, whose troops massacred many Rwandans throughout the 1990s, according to human rights organisations.
Mr Twagiramungu argues that the International community will do little or nothing to change the dictatorial attitude of president Kagame "If the international community decided today to arrest Kagame and try him, people would be happy. But the reality is, the international community will not do it. So what remains is to find a common ground for peaceful cohabitation," says Twagiramungu.
Mr Twagiramungu is a man of conviction, he says what he does and he does what he says, whether the current terrain is conducive for his political ride and whether Kagame will allow cohabitation without marriage remains to be seen, but what is clear though is that the Kagame's honey moon is over.
Jacqueline Umurungi
Brussels.
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