Warnings of Catastrophe
French, US, UN, and Belgian Documents Foreshadow the Genocide in Rwanda 1994
Key Belgian Diplomatic Cables Published in English for the First Time
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 458
Posted March 6, 2014
Edited by Michael Dobbs
For more information contact:
202/994-7000 or nsarchiv@gwu.edu
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IN THE NEWS
The Shroud Over Rwanda's Nightmare
By Michael Dobbs, The New York Times, January 9, 2014
"The Rwandan Genocide," Letter to the Editor, The New York Times
By Rafael Medoff
January 10, 2014
"The Rwandan Genocide," Letter to the Editor, The New York Times
By Linda Melvern, Gregory Stanton, et al.
January 15, 2014 (published January 21, 2014)
Washington, DC, March 6, 2014 – Concerned about the possibility of "a
new bloodbath" in Rwanda, the Belgium foreign ministry issued a
dramatic diplomatic démarche on February 25, 1994, calling for a
strengthening of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in the
Central African country. According to Belgium government dispatches,
the initiative failed because of opposition by the United States and
the United Kingdom and resistance from the United Nations Secretariat.
New English translations of the diplomatic traffic between Brussels
and New York on the eve of the Rwanda genocide are contained in the
third of a series of postings co-sponsored by the United States
Holocaust Memorial Museum and the National Security Archive at George
Washington University. The latest briefing book also includes a series
of earlier warnings about the potential for mass violence in Rwanda
from U.S., French, and United Nations sources, dating back to late
1990.
Today's postings form part of a detailed documentation of the
international response to the genocide that killed between 500,000 and
a million Rwandans, predominantly Tutsi, between April and July 1994.
Future briefing books will examine events before and after the onset
of the genocide, including the Arusha peace negotiations, a growing
refugee crisis, the murders of Belgian peacekeepers, and the fateful
decision to withdraw the bulk of the United Nations peacekeeping
force, known as UNAMIR.
Originally published in French and Flemish as part of a Belgian Senate
investigation into the Rwandan tragedy in December 1997, the Belgian
diplomatic cable of February 25 describes a "significant
deterioration" in the security situation that "could well lead to a
new bloodbath." It expresses concern about the possibility that
Belgian paratroopers, known as the "Blue Berets", might become
"passive witnesses to genocide in Rwanda."

Text of French language version of Document 7.
Addressed to the Belgian ambassador to the United Nations, Paul
Noterdaeme, the February 25 cable reflects the growing concern among
senior Belgian officials over the breakdown in the Arusha peace
process. It followed a sudden spate of political assassinations
coinciding with the visit to Kigali of the Belgian foreign minister,
Willy Claes, that threatened to torpedo attempts to install a new,
national unity government.
his formal reply to Brussels three days later, Ambassador Noterdaeme
reported that the United States and the United Kingdom were opposed to
strengthening the UNAMIR mandate, and were even considering
withdrawing the peacekeepers "in the event of difficulties." He added
that the United Nations secretary-general, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, was
opposed to any adjustment in the rules of engagement for UNAMIR, for
both political and military reasons.

"FONMIN Claes' Interview on His Trip to Rwanda and Burundi and on
Situation in Zaire," first page of Document 10.
With the security situation deteriorating, and the international
community unwilling to act, both the Rwandan army and the Tutsi-led
Rwandan Patriotic Front began preparing for renewed military
confrontation, as illustrated by Documents 8 and 9.
As we approach the 20th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, the
documents published today provide further reminders of the passivity
of an international community scarred by the murders of UN
peacekeepers in Somalia in October 1993. Repeated warnings of
catastrophe by diplomats and intelligence analysts were either missed
or ignored by senior policy-makers in Washington, New York, Paris, and
elsewhere.
The Documents
Document 1: French version, English version
Date: October 24, 1990
From: [French ambassador to Rwanda Georges] Martres and [French
military attaché] Rene Galinie.
To: French Foreign Ministry
Subject: "Assessment of the Political Situation"
Writing in the aftermath of an invasion of Rwanda by Tutsi-led rebels
based in Uganda, the French ambassador warns of a political and
military backlash by the country's Hutu majority. Ambassador Martres
believes that any attempt to restore a Tutsi-dominated regime in
Rwanda, such as existed prior to the colonial era, could lead to the
"physical elimination" of the country's Tutsi minority, of between
500,000 to 700,000 people. A long-time French Africa hand, Martres
frequently expressed opinions that reflected the views of Rwandan
president Habyarimana.
Document 2
Date: September 23, 1992
From: Secretary of State [drafted by Rick Ehrenreich]
To: All African Diplomatic Posts
Subject: "INR/AA'S AFRICAN TRENDS - 9/18/92 (NO. 19)"
In a lengthy analysis of the situation in Rwanda, an analyst for the
State Department intelligence unit (INR) predicts that Hutu
chauvinists might be tempted to play the "genocide card" in response
to military threats from Tutsi-led exiles. He mentions the "threat of
genocidal violence" as a possible outcome of the Rwanda crisis despite
the conclusion of the Arusha peace agreement.
Document 3
Date: August 11, 1993
From: United Nations Economic and Social Council, Commission on Human Rights
Rapporteur: Bacre W. Ndiaye
Title: "Extrajudicial, summary, or arbitrary executions [in Rwanda]"
A UN human rights official notes that Tutsis inside the country are
being targeted "solely because of their membership of a certain ethnic
group," which could qualify as "genocide" under the terms of the
Geneva convention. The report by Bacre Ndiaye chronicles a series of
massacres committed against the Tutsi minority in Rwanda, apparently
with Rwandan government support, in the wake of military advances by
the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front.
Document 4
Date : February 14, 1994
From: [Jacques-Roger] Booh-Booh, UNAMIR, Kigali
To: [Kofi] Annan, United Nations, New York
Subject: "Letter from Foreign Minister of Belgium"
In this message, relayed to UNAMIR commander Roméo Dallaire by the UN
Secretariat, Belgian Foreign Minister Willy Claes warns that UNAMIR
may find it impossible to fulfill its mission unless it is given
greater authority. He warns that the continuation of the political
stalemate could result in "an irreversible explosion of violence."
Document 5
Date: February 17, 1994
From: US Embassy Kigali, (Ambassador David Rawson)
To: Secretary of State (United States)
Subject: "The Military and the Transition to Peace"
In a dispatch analyzing the mood in the Rwandan army, the U.S.
ambassador to Kigali raises the possibility of a military coup, led
either by Hutu nationalists or by the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic
Front. He adds, however, that "serious evidence" of a planned coup is
lacking.
Document 6
Date: February 21, 1994 (cover note dated February 23, 1994)
To: [Kofi] Annan, United Nations, New York
From: [Jacques-Roger] Booh-Booh, UNAMIR, Kigali (and UNAMIR commander
Roméo Dallaire)
Subject: "The Military Situation and Assessment of RGF/RPF Intentions
as of 20 Feb 1994"
In an analysis of the military situation, Dallaire reports that both
the Hutu-dominated Rwandan government forces (RGF) and the Tutsi-led
Rwandan Patriotic Front may be preparing to violate the terms of the
Arusha peace agreement. He cites evidence of RPF incursions into the
demilitarized zone, but leaves open the possibility of a provocation
by government sympathizers "dressed as RPF." He warns that time is
"running out for political discussions" and " any spark on the
security side could possibly have catastrophic consequences."
Document 7: French version, English version
Date: February 25, 1994
From: Minafet (Belgian Ministry for Foreign Affairs Chef de cabinet
Lode Willems)
To: Delbelonu [Belgian delegation to the United Nations]
Subject: [Warning of "genocide" in Rwanda]
The Belgian Foreign Ministry expresses alarm at the worsening security
situation in Kigali, and warns that the failure to strengthen UNAMIR
could result in a "new bloodbath." The Belgian ambassador to the
United Nations replies on February 28 that both the United States and
the United Kingdom are considering withdrawing the peacekeeping force
from Rwanda "in the event of difficulties."
Document 8
Date: March 3, 1994
From: UNAMIR Force Commander Roméo Dallaire
To: RPF General Paul Kagame
Subject: "Letter of Protest - Deployment of RPF Troops in
Demilitarized Zone and Expulsion of UNAMIR Duty Personnel from the
CND" [Rwandan parliament building]
Following the upsurge in political violence in mid-February, both
sides pushed ahead with plans for renewed military operations. In this
message, Dallaire warns RPF commander Paul Kagame against violating
the terms of the Arusha peace agreement and conducting military
operations in the demilitarized zone in northern Rwanda.
Document 9
Date: March 7, 1994
From: Dallaire\UNAMIR\Kigali
To: Annan\DPKO\United Nations\New York
Subject: "Resupply of Ammunition for Government Army"
By early March, Dallaire was complaining of peace agreement violations
by both sides. In this message to the Department of Peacekeeping
Operations (DPKO) in New York, the UNAMIR commander complains about
shipments of ammunition to the Rwandan army through Kigali airport and
warns that such supplies could "become an explosive issue."
Document 10
Date: March 11, 1994
From: US Embassy Brussels
To: Secretary of State (United States)
Subject: "FONMIN Claes' Interview on His Trip to Rwanda and Burundi
and on Situation in Zaire"
Interviewed on his return from Rwanda, the Belgian foreign minister
expresses deepening pessimism that a political solution can be found.
He warns that the country appears to be heading toward "an almost
structural confrontation" between the majority Hutu and minority Tutsi
populations.
http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB458/
--
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